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Storks bring babies, |
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Storks bring babies, study finds
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п»їPerhaps when you read the title of this article you were surprised and thought that what I am going to write next makes no sense. We all know perfectly well that babies do not come into the world after a long journey piloted by storks, but come as a result of the union of an egg and a sperm. This is true, but that a study claiming that storks bring babies from Paris is also true.
Yes, just as you are reading it, there is a scientific study, or so it claims to be, that is able to conclude that babies and storks are intimately related. But, even knowing that this is impossible, how is it that someone has obtained research results to be able to claim such madness?
Because not everything we read, even if it carries the adjective "scientific", really is. Especially when a single research is proving something so revolutionary. But these are the headlines that sell and in a certain way they are true, in the following lines we explain why.
"Ignorance affirms or denies outright; science doubts."
-Voltaire-
Storks and the birth rateWhen a person performs different statistical studies there is a rule that he must always keep in mind: correlation does not imply causation, that is, it does not imply a cause-effect relationship. Simply put, two things can be related or vary together without either being the cause of the other.
Continuing with the study of storks, the higher the number of inhabitants, the higher the number of tall buildings for stork nesting, and, therefore, the higher the number of storks and the higher the number of babies born because there is a larger population. But both things are not directly related: the birth rate has nothing to do with this cute animal, although with a superficial statistical analysis we may think that they are related.
You might think that maybe this is an anecdotal study and that you don't normally read such crazy headlines in the news. But that's where you're wrong. There are thousands of examples every day that confuse correlation with causation. From the fact that eating chocolate increases intelligence because the last Nobel prizes prove it, without taking into account that in Switzerland it is a traditional food, to telling you that if you eat apples you can get cancer, because a study showed that result and did not take into account other variables.
This is another problem, many studies take for granted the influence of one variable in the result without taking into account all the other variables that may be contaminating this influence. This is how we arrive at what are known as spurious correlations. Spurious correlations or spurious relationships occur when two variables that do not have a causal relationship may lead someone to think that they do.
In other words, spurious correlations are a mathematical relationship in which two events have no logical connection, although it can be implied that they do have one due to a third factor not yet considered, called a "confounding factor" or "hidden variable". An example would be to affirm that, in Spanish school students, the greater their height, the greater their knowledge of the political situation. This may be so, but perhaps the hidden variable of age also has something to do with it, don't you think?
So, when you read that lettuce has been shown to prevent cancer or that coffee is drunk by people with higher intelligence, think that behind this association there may be a distorted interpretation of the statistical calculations, thus giving rise to totally bizarre conclusions. But then, how do I know if what I read is true? In short, how do you know if the study in any article is sufficiently valid?
To avoid being deceived or being sold products based on misleading headlines and disguised as scientific research, it is advisable to be very attentive to everything you read. You can also be guided by these questions:
Could the study be interpreted in a way that leads to different conclusions? If so, causality may not apply.
Are there any methodological shortcomings in the study that need to be taken into account when drawing conclusions? For example, talking about women who drink coffee for breakfast being more intelligent and not including men to show that this does not happen to them, or not including women who eat something else for breakfast - as a control group - to show that it is indeed the coffee and not simply the fact of having breakfast.
Can the results of the study be applied to other groups? If you claim that it is the storks that bring babies, does this happen only in the big cities or also in the rural population? With this question, the stork study would have lost its validity.
How does this work fit into the body of research carried out on the topic in question over time? If we suddenly read that a study shows that bacon does not raise cholesterol, when throughout life various studies have suggested the opposite, at the very least, suspect.
Was the study properly designed to achieve its purpose? From taking into account the age of the sample for the conclusion or its sex, as well as the randomization and control of variables is very important. This can be seen in the methodology of the study.
Who is financing the study? Perhaps this is the most important question. It is important to ensure that the study is not biased, i.e., for example, that it does not talk about the benefits of yogurt and is sponsored by a brand of that product.
Don't let them fool you with sensationalist headlines. Don't let them play games with your health or your habits by using correlations as causalities or spurious relationships as genuine mathematical relationships. Be smart with what you read and question it; think that the knowledge you acquire, assimilating this procedure as a habit, will be of a higher quality.
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